My Prediction for the Election

By Selwyn Duke

It doesn’t make me happy to say it, but I believe that Barack Obama will win re-election. In fact, I predicted this more than two weeks ago here. Now I’ll provide more detail and give you my prediction for how the Electoral College will break down.

Let’s start with the obvious. It goes almost without saying that Obama and Mitt Romney will carry the states in which they’re strong. They are as follows.

Obama:

Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, DC, and Hawaii.

Total electoral votes: 201

Romney:

Arizona, Utah, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana.

Total electoral votes: 191

Now we come to the 11 toss-up states. Here is how I predict they will go.

Obama:

Wisconsin, 10; Michigan, 16; Ohio, 18; Pennsylvania, 20; Nevada, 6.

Total electoral votes: 70

Romney:

Colorado, 9; Iowa, 6; Florida, 29; North Carolina, 15; Virginia, 13; New Hampshire, 4.

Total electoral votes: 76

This would give Obama a narrow victory with 271 votes (270 are needed to win), while Romney would fall 3 short at 267. 

As I’ve said in the past, I hope I’m wrong and all the conservative pundits are right. But I have to call it like I see it.

Good luck to Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and God bless America. If my prediction is correct, we’ll need all the blessings we can get.  

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