Propelled by impressive debate performances, Mitt Romney has surged in the polls. Gallup had the GOP nominee leading by as many as seven points recently, and likely women voters, who once favored Barack Obama by double digits, now lean toward the president by only one percent in the swing states. Even more significantly, Romney has finally taken the lead in the Real Clear Politics electoral-college estimate, 206 to 201. And it’s plain to me what all this means for November 6.
Barack Obama will likely win re-election.
As someone who thinks the president is the kind of man who lights up a room when he leaves it, I assuredly take no pleasure in making this prediction. My problem, however, is that I lost my rose-colored glasses a long time ago. And viewed without them, it’s clear that the electoral map won’t likely come up roses for Romney.
It’s not that I doubt the RCP estimate of 206 safe electoral votes for the former governor. It’s that it’s hard to see where the 64 additional votes needed to reach 270 can come from. How can this be with 131 up for grabs?
Read the rest here.